A note from Itô
A noisy signal can still have structure; a clean-looking pattern can still be an accident. The work is not to make every movement meaningful. It is to measure carefully enough to know when meaning is earned.
Markets produce more observations than explanations. That abundance makes it tempting to keep looking until something appears. But searching is part of the experiment: the more possibilities we try, the less surprising a good-looking result becomes.
We try to be explicit about what was tested, what was left out, and what would count as evidence against an idea. A result should survive reasonable changes in measurement and the discomfort of an independent review.
Uncertainty does not disappear when a line is drawn on a chart. It is part of the thing being measured.